Nationals vs. Reds prediction, odds, time: 2026 MLB picks for Thursday, May 14 from proven model

SportsLine’s model simulates Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds 10,000 times and reveals MLB picks for Thursday

Preview
The Washington Nationals are aiming for a three-game sweep of the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday after taking the opener 10-4 and winning Game 2 8-7, with both contests flying over the total. Foster Griffin will take the mound for Washington (4-1, 2.12 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 42 strikeouts), while Cincinnati counters with Chase Burns (4-1, 2.11 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 48 strikeouts). First pitch from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. ET. The Reds sit as a -160 money-line favorite (risk $160 to win $100), with the over/under posted at 8.

Model projections and picks
Before locking in any Reds vs. Nationals bets, review SportsLine’s proven computer model, which has been strong in Week 8 and beyond. The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and has been on a 7-1 run on its top-rated MLB picks entering Week 8. It also excelled with home run prop bets in 2025, delivering notable profits. The model has now focused on Nationals vs. Reds and has locked in its selections and predictions. You can view the model’s picks at SportsLine.

Odds and betting lines
Here are the latest lines for Reds vs. Nationals:
– Money line: Reds -160, Nationals +134
– Over/under: 8 runs
– Run line: Reds -1.5 (+128)
To see the model’s money-line pick and other selections, head to SportsLine.

Top Nationals vs. Reds predictions
After 10,000 simulations, the model favors going Over 8 combined runs. The first two games of this three-game set have trended to the Over, and recent trends show the Nationals’ last three games and the Reds’ last five have often gone Over. The total has gone Over in nine of the Reds’ last 11 home games. The model projects 2 total bases or more for Nationals players James Wood, Luis Garcia, and CJ Adrams, while Cincinnati is forecast to have Elly De La Cruz exceed 1.5 total bases. The model expects about 10.4 combined runs, with the Over hitting in roughly 65% of simulations. For a concrete pick, explore the Nationals vs. Reds money-line selection on SportsLine.

How to make Reds vs. Nationals picks
After simulating every pitch 10,000 times, the model identifies one side of the money line as the value. For a clean, straightforward breakdown of its top pick and other bets, visit SportsLine to see the model’s detailed selections.