Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game
Updated: May 11, 2026, 10:00 AM ET • 4 min read
The Astros haven’t had much success on defense this season, but Peter Lambert could help mitigate those issues against Seattle. Seattle has struggled on the road, winning just seven of 18 games. While they’re favored to win tonight, the projections expect the home team to keep it close. Let’s break down my daily MLB picks for May 11.
Who will win Mariners vs Astros today: Astros +1.5 (-135)
The Houston Astros have been very effective against right-handed pitching, ranking third in both wOBA and OPS, trailing only the Yankees and Braves—the two highest-scoring teams in the majors. Their challenge isn’t generating runs but preventing them, and that shouldn’t be an issue today with Peter Lambert on the mound. He has allowed just six runs through 22 1/3 innings and even held the Dodgers scoreless over seven innings. While there are signs he’s due for regression, the Seattle Mariners (21st in runs per game, 27th in batting average) are unlikely to apply much pressure.
COVERS INTEL: Peter Lambert owns a 22.2% hard-hit rate, the lowest among today’s projected starters. Want more Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account.
Mariners vs Astros Over/Under pick: Under 8.5 (-115)
George Kirby has a rock-solid 1.10 WHIP and a 57.6% ground-ball rate, and Lambert is the only probable pitcher who has allowed hard contact less frequently this season. Kirby’s ability to limit barrels and keep the ball down makes him very difficult to score on. He has allowed three runs or fewer in seven of eight starts this season and two or fewer in five straight. Lambert is striking out a career-high 9.27 batters per nine innings, which should serve him well against a Mariners lineup that owns the second-highest strikeout rate against righties.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 16-6, +7.53 units
Over/Under bets: 9-12, -4.11 units
Mariners vs Astros odds
Moneyline: Mariners -140 | Astros +120
Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+115) | Astros +1.5 (-135)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Mariners vs Astros trend
The Seattle Mariners have hit the game total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
How to watch Mariners vs Astros and game info
Location: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby (4-2, 2.94 ERA)
Astros starting pitcher: Peter Lambert (2-2, 2.42 ERA)
Mariners vs Astros latest injurie
No notable injuries are listed ahead of this game.
