World Cup Futures Matchday 2 Market Recap: Argentina Climbs to No. 2 as Spain, Brazil and Portugal Continue to Slide

The 2026 FIFA World Cup Knockout Stage is just 3 days away, and prediction markets are beginning to separate the contenders from the pretenders.

Strong performances have sent Argentina and France even higher in the World Cup futures market, while early disappointments from Spain, Portugal and Brazil have erased billions of implied championship probability.

Here’s a look at the biggest movers after Matchday 2.

Winners

🇦🇷 Argentina (+97.44%)

No team has gained more momentum than Argentina.

After opening the tournament with just a 7.8% chance to lift the trophy, Lionel Messi and company have nearly doubled their implied championship odds to 15.4%, making Argentina the clear No. 2 favorite.

Argentina opened the tournament with a convincing 3-0 victory over Algeria before following it up with another dominant performance in Matchday 2. Two comfortable wins, combined with vintage performances from Messi, have convinced traders that Argentina is once again one of the teams to beat.

🇫🇷 France (+21%)

France remains the tournament favorite—and the market has become even more confident.

The defending favorites entered the World Cup with an implied probability of roughly 16%. Following victories in each of their opening two matches, that figure has climbed to 19.4%, an increase of more than 21%.

With arguably the deepest squad in the tournament, France has done exactly what bettors expected: win comfortably while reinforcing its status as the team everyone must chase.

Losers

🇪🇸 Spain (-17.65%)

Spain entered the tournament as the betting favorite, but the market has cooled considerably.

A frustrating scoreless draw in the opener immediately sent Spain’s price lower, and despite improving afterward, traders remain less optimistic than they were before kickoff.

Spain has fallen from a 17% implied chance to win the World Cup to 14%, a decline of 17.65%.

🇵🇹 Portugal (-33.33%)

Portugal has experienced one of the biggest collapses of the tournament.

The Seleção opened around a 12% implied chance to win the World Cup, but a shocking draw in their opening match sparked a massive selloff. Although they stabilized somewhat after Matchday 2, Portugal still sits at just 8%, representing a 33.33% decline from its pre-tournament price.

Cristiano Ronaldo’s side still has time to recover, but traders are clearly demanding stronger performances before buying back in.

🇧🇷 Brazil (-35.29%)

Brazil has been one of the tournament’s biggest disappointments through two matches.

After beginning the World Cup with an 8.5% implied championship probability, Brazil has slipped to just 5.5%, a decline of 35.29%.

Dropped points and underwhelming performances have shaken confidence in one of football’s traditional powers, making Brazil one of the largest losers in the futures market so far.

Bottom Line

With the group stage approaching its decisive final matches, prediction markets are reacting quickly to every result.

Argentina has emerged as the biggest winner of the opening two matchdays, nearly doubling its championship probability and overtaking Spain as the No. 2 favorite behind France. Meanwhile, Spain, Portugal and Brazil have all seen confidence erode after failing to meet lofty expectations.

As the knockout stage draws closer, every match—and every market move—will become increasingly significant.