Peter’s Points: NBA Best Bets Today (Predictions, Prop Bets for Donovan Mitchell, Cavs vs. Pistons Game 5)

Game 5 Preview — Cavaliers vs Pistons

Tied 2-2. What more could NBA fans ask for? That’s the scenario on Wednesday night, as the NBA Playoffs hand us a standalone matchup between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Detroit Pistons with a trip to the Eastern Conference Finals on the line over the next few days.

Cleveland and Detroit split the first two games on their home floors, turning a best-of-seven into a best-of-three heading into Game 5. Donovan Mitchell (43 points, 39 in the second half) dominated Game 4 for the Cavs and will be the centerpiece of today’s Peter’s Points as my favored player prop target. The Cavs have yet to win a road playoff game, though they’ve been undefeated at home, and that road success will be essential if they want to reach the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since LeBron James left for the Los Angeles Lakers. Oddsmakers have Pistons as the favorites on Wednesday night, but I’m projecting a Mitchell prop and the game total for today’s best bets. Here’s the analysis behind each play for May 13’s playoff action.

1 Season, 600 Bets: NBA Betting Record

2025-26 season record: 294-255 (-5.56 units)
2024-25 season record: 281-293-5 (-4.94 units)
Overall (since 2021-22): 1585-1491-27 (+27.59 units)
Find Peter Dewey’s NBA betting record here (futures included). You can also follow my daily plays on BetStamp here.

NBA Best Bets Today

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Donovan Mitchell OVER 26.5 Points (-120)
Cleveland Cavaliers-Detroit Pistons UNDER 212.5 (-110)

Donovan Mitchell OVER 26.5 Points (-120)

This postseason, Mitchell has five 30-point games, including three in a row in this series. The star guard has always shown up in the playoffs, averaging 28.1 points per game for his career even though he’s never made a Conference Finals appearance. Mitchell averaged over 29 points per game in each of the Cavs’ last two playoff runs, but that number has dropped to 26.7 per game in the 2026 postseason. Despite that, I’m backing the seven-time All-Star in Game 5. Mitchell has 31, 35 and 43 points in his last three games, and he seems to have realized that he has to carry this Cavs offense, which has underperformed in the playoffs. Mitchell has taken 24 or more shots in three straight games, and he’s now averaging 33.0 points per game while shooting 49.5 percent from the field in this series. After taking just two free throws in Game 1, Mitchell has been much more aggressive getting to the line for 32 attempts over the last three games. As long as he maintains this aggression on the offensive end, this line is too low for him in Game 5.

Cleveland Cavaliers-Detroit Pistons UNDER 212.5 (-110)

The two games in Detroit have been much lower-scoring in this series, and it’s become pretty clear why. Cleveland’s offensive rating dips on the road, which is a major factor in why I’m betting the UNDER now that the action shifts back to Detroit. The Cavs have a clean, efficient style, and while their at-home offense is strong, the road environment tends to limit scoring, making the under a sensible choice for Game 5.