Mariners vs Astros Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today’s MLB Game
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The Seattle Mariners have struggled on the road this season, winning just seven of 18 away games. While they’re favored to win tonight, my Mariners vs. Astros predictions expect the home team to stay close.
Let’s break down my daily MLB picks for May 11.
The Houston Astros have been very effective against right-handed pitching. They rank third in wOBA and OPS, trailing only the Yankees and Braves—the two highest-scoring teams in the majors. Their challenge isn’t generating runs, but preventing them. That shouldn’t be an issue today with Peter Lambert on the mound. He has allowed only six runs through 22 1/3 innings and even held the Dodgers scoreless over seven innings. While there are signs he’s due for a bit of regression, the Seattle Mariners (21st in runs per game, 27th in average) are unlikely to force the issue.
Covers Intel: Peter Lambert owns a 22.2% hard-hit rate, the lowest among today’s projected starters.
George Kirby owns a rock-solid 1.10 WHIP, a 57.6% ground-ball rate, and Lambert is the only probable pitcher who has allowed hard contact less frequently this season. Kirby’s ability to limit barrels and keep the ball down makes it incredibly difficult to produce offense against him. He has conceded three runs or fewer in seven of eight starts this season, and two or fewer in five straight. Lambert is sitting down a career-high 9.27 batters per nine innings by way of strikeout, and that should serve him well against a Mariners squad that owns the second-highest strikeout rate against righties.
Todd Cordell’s 2026 Transparency Record
ML/RL bets: 16-6, +7.53 units
Over/Under bets: 9-12, -4.11 units
Moneyline: Mariners -140 | Astros +120
Run line: Mariners -1.5 (+115) | Astros +1.5 (-135)
Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
The Seattle Mariners have hit the game total Under in 12 of their last 19 away games (+5.50 Units / 26% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Mariners vs. Astros.
Location: Daikin Park, Houston, TX
Date: Monday, May 11, 2026
First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
TV: FS1
Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby (4-2, 2.94 ERA)
Astros starting pitcher: Peter Lambert (2-2, 2.42 ERA)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change. Not intended for use in MA.
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