Free MLB home run picks, odds for May 11: Expert backs Pete Alonso for Monday HR player props
Monday brings a light MLB slate with only six games, but the New York Yankees, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Dodgers are all in action as they chase division leads. The Rays, who sit one game ahead of the Yankees in the AL East, travel to Toronto to face the Blue Jays, while the Baltimore Orioles host New York. The Dodgers, tied with the San Diego Padres atop the NL West, welcome the San Francisco Giants.
Despite the abbreviated schedule, MLB betting and prop bets on top home run bets today still offer plenty of targets for Monday. Here’s a look at the players SportsLine MLB expert Angelo Magliocca is eyeing for the best bets to homer today.
Magliocca, known as “Amags,” is a highly profitable MLB capper who leverages his deep knowledge of baseball to find value on player props, sides and totals. He is coming off another strong season at SportsLine. Across the 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025 MLB seasons, Amags is up 133.4 units on straight bets and parlays while winning an additional 25.3 units on ladder plays.
Spencer Jones (+542) Daulton Varsho (+473) Pete Alonso (+410)
Spencer Jones, Yankees (+542, DraftKings)
With a limited number of options tonight on a smaller slate, here are a couple of names you may not hear elsewhere, along with a more chalky pick that still carries solid odds.
Across his two home starts in Baltimore so far, Brandon Young has allowed three home runs in 9 2/3 innings, and he faces a Yankees lineup that leads MLB in home runs. One player who hasn’t contributed to that team’s homer tally is rookie Spencer Jones, who made his debut this past weekend in Milwaukee. Facing Jacob Misiorowski was a tough first test, and on Monday Jones will see a fastball from Young that is slower and easier to handle than an average MLB arm. Young has been getting hit hard nearly half the time, especially against lefties, which may be tied to his limited pitch mix. Throwing a four-seam fastball half the time, a splitter 35% of the time and a curveball that has not generated many whiffs at about a 10% clip, he lacks depth of notable pitches against lefties. The curveball is his best offering for run prevention against left-handed batters, while the fastball and splitter have been crushed, with .513 and .539 xSLG rates respectively. None of his pitches generate many swings and misses, which is the Achilles’ heel for Jones, so if we can put more balls in play here, we could see the first major-league homer from the highly touted power prospect. Additionally, the fly-ball rate has risen sharply for the Baltimore starter, and this matchup sits at the better end of their splits for our purposes.
Daulton Varsho, Blue Jays (+473, DraftKings)
Drew Rasmussen may not be a name that appears in a simple, straightforward way.
