These 7 MLB Teams Are +60% Against the Spread So Far This Season
We are 1/5th into the MLB season, and seven teams are still covering the spread at a 60% clip or better. While early-season results can sometimes be driven by small sample sizes, this level of consistency across multiple teams suggests more than just randomness.
Betting markets can take time to fully adjust, especially early in the season when public perception is still catching up to on-field performance. But Until oddsmakers tighten those lines, teams that combine reliability with either undervaluation or dominance can continue to outperform against the spread.
Some of these clubs, like Arizona and Tampa Bay, entered the season undervalued. The Braves meanwhile are just consistently blowing out opponents. Here’s a look at seven teams covering at a 60% clip or better—and why bettors should be paying attention.
7. Colorado Rockies: 20-13 ATS / 60.6%
Why they’re beating the odds:
The Rockies are the definition of a market inefficiency. Oddsmakers have priced them as one of the league’s weakest teams, but they’ve been far more competitive than expected—especially at Coors Field. Their offense thrives at altitude, and they’ve been keeping games close even when they don’t win outright, making them highly valuable on the +1.5 run line.
6. San Diego Padres: 19-12 ATS / 61.3%
Why they’re beating the odds:
San Diego’s mix of elite pitching and timely hitting has made them a consistent cover machine. Even in games where the offense cools off, their bullpen keeps margins tight. Bettors have benefited from a team that rarely gets blown out and often wins by multiple runs when things click.
5. Milwaukee Brewers: 19-12 ATS / 61.3%
Why they’re beating the odds:
Pitching, pitching, pitching. The Brewers’ rotation and bullpen combo has been among the most reliable in baseball. They excel in low-scoring games, which naturally favors run line covers—especially as underdogs. Their ability to control tempo keeps them within striking distance nightly.
4. Tampa Bay Rays: 19-12 ATS / 61.3%
Why they’re beating the odds:
No surprise here—the Rays continue to outsmart the market. Their depth, matchup-based strategy, and defensive efficiency allow them to maximize value in nearly every game. They don’t just win—they often win in the exact scenarios bettors need to cover spreads.
3. St. Louis Cardinals: 20-12 ATS / 62.5%
Why they’re beating the odds:
The Cardinals have quietly turned into one of the most dependable teams against the spread. Their balanced lineup and improved pitching staff have reduced volatility, and they’ve consistently outperformed modest expectations set by bookmakers.
2. Atlanta Braves 22-11 / 66.7%
Why they’re beating the odds:
The Braves aren’t just winning—they’re dominating. Their powerful offense leads to frequent multi-run victories, which is key for run line bettors laying -1.5. Unlike many favorites, Atlanta doesn’t just edge opponents—they create separation.
1. Arizona Diamondbacks / 21-10 / 67.7%
Why they’re beating the odds:
Not dominant…Not flashy…Just consistently misjudged.
Arizona Diamondbacks are a perfectly average team consistently being mis-priced as an awful one. They don’t dominate. They don’t collapse. They just quietly exist in the margins—close enough to win, close enough to cover, and overlooked enough to keep cashing tickets.
The Diamondbacks look like a great team to bet against on a day-to-day basis, because they have one of the worst rotations and bullpens in baseball and the team is bottom-5 in runs against. What’s being conveniently overlooked however is they have a top-10 offense with some real quality hitters; Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte, Ildemaro Vargas and Nolan Arenado.
Arizona’s speed and aggressive style of play have created chaos for opponents—and value for bettors.
Final Takeaway
Covering at a 60% rate or higher is no fluke this deep into the season. Whether it’s undervalued underdogs like the Rockies and Diamondbacks or dominant contenders like the Braves, these teams are consistently exploiting gaps between perception and reality.
For bettors, the lesson is simple: don’t just look at standings—look at performance versus expectation. That’s where the real value lives.
