San Antonio Spurs vs Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Betting Preview

Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 4 Preview

Sunday, May 10 · 7:30 p.m. ET · NBC/Peacock
Spurs -4.5 -110 / Timberwolves +4.5 -110
Spurs ML -188 / Timberwolves ML +158
Total 218.5 -108 o / -112 u

As dominant as Victor Wembanyama was in Game 3, it’s worth noting that it took a performance of that magnitude—combined with another wretched shooting night from the Wolves—for San Antonio to escape with the win and cover. The Spurs have proven to be a formidable matchup, and their offense has remained remarkably consistent throughout the series. While I liked Minnesota’s chances heading into the postseason, the reality is that the Spurs are likely too good to let this slip now. By securing Game 3, they’ve made it incredibly difficult for the Wolves to make it out of this series alive, with Minnesota needing to win three out of the next four games.

The Wolves are currently mired in some ugly shooting luck, hitting just 32% from three and a dismal 35% on mid-range shots. I don’t care how scary Wembanyama is as a rim protector; those are outlier figures that are due for a statistical correction. Despite the shooting woes, this Timberwolves team has enough “dawg” in them to keep fighting. Anthony Edwards looked revived enough in Game 3 to convince me he has another push in him, even if his physical burst is starting to fade. I have a hard time believing this Minnesota group will simply fold and get reverse-swept without a serious stand.

The trends here are admittedly mixed. Since 2003, home underdogs down 2-1 after losing back-to-back games are just 11–12 (47.8%) ATS. However, if you prefer the early urgency, teams in this spot tend to respond with a straightforward, pressing approach. The combination of Minnesota’s potential for a stronger shooting night and San Antonio’s steady execution keeps this one close enough for a cover or a late push for an outright win.