Red Sox vs. Tigers prediction, odds, line, time: 2026 MLB picks for May 5 from proven model

Red Sox at Tigers Tuesday Preview

The Detroit Tigers will look to rebound after a tough Monday as they host the Boston Red Sox in the second game of a three-game set on Tuesday. Detroit sits at 18-18 after a 5-4 setback to Boston yesterday, and they also lost two-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal indefinitely due to elbow surgery. Skubal was scratched before Monday’s scheduled start, and the Red Sox (14-21) took advantage with 12 hits—their third-most this season—to win their third straight series opener.

Jovani Moran (0-0, 2.33 ERA) is slated to make his first MLB start for Boston, countered by Detroit’s Framber Valdez (2-1, 3.35 ERA). First pitch is at 6:40 p.m. ET from Comerica Park in Detroit. The teams have split their last 10 meetings.

The latest Tigers vs. Red Sox odds have Detroit as -158 favorites, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. Before making any Red Sox vs. Tigers picks, be sure to see SportsLine’s Tigers vs. Red Sox predictions and betting advice from their proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times and is coming off a 5-0 week on top-rated MLB picks. It also excelled at home run prop picks in 2025, delivering notable profits. Those following its MLB betting selections could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Red Sox vs. Tigers and just locked in its picks. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Tigers vs. Red Sox: Red Sox vs. Tigers money line — Tigers -158, Red Sox +133; O/U — 8.5 runs; Red Sox vs. Tigers run line — Tigers -1.5 (+134). See picks at SportsLine.

Top Red Sox vs. Tigers predictions — After 10,000 simulations of Red Sox vs. Tigers, the model is going Over 8.5 combined runs. The last three matchups between these teams have all had at least 8 total runs, with Monday’s meeting eclipsing the total. Boston will have Moran make his first MLB start, but he has a 4.52 ERA as a reliever since 2023. He’s not expected to be on the mound long, and games that heavily involve a bullpen are ones that tend to be higher scoring. As for Valdez, he’s been solid in his first year in Detroit, but note that this is a night start for the former Astro. His ERA in night starts (4.13) is nearly three times that in day games (1.50). Both teams are projected to score.