France Jumps England in World Cup Odds, Spain Fighting Yamal Injury

While Spain remains the odds-on favorite to win this summer’s FIFA World Cup, France has climbed into second place as England’s form dips. The Three Lions were listed at +500 on FanDuel on April 1, but have drifted to +650 with just over a month to go before kickoff.

England’s start under Thomas Tuchel had looked like a record-breaking run, compiling 11 straight competitive wins from March to November 2025 after their quarterfinal exit to Mbappe’s France in the last World Cup.

Spain has fallen back a touch after Lamine Yamal suffered a torn hamstring. France, which was the pre-tournament favorite at the last World Cup and European Championship, continues to be strong and well positioned.

Across the major sportsbooks cited (FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM, and Hard Rock Bet), Spain sits around +430 to +500, while France sits roughly +470 to +450. England sits near +650 to +600, with Brazil around +750 to +850 and Argentina about +850 to +800. Portugal hovers near +1100, Germany between +1100 and +1400, the Netherlands from ~+1900 to +2200, Norway around +2200 to +3000, and Belgium near +3000 to +3500.

England’s decline can be traced to several factors. Their recent form has been off: a 1-1 draw with Uruguay followed by a 0-1 loss to Japan in March friendlies played at home. This comes despite Tuchel’s long start to his tenure, which had seen their best run in years after the World Cup exit.

There are also questions about certain positions in the squad, particularly in defense. Manchester City’s 21-year-old Nico O’Reilly could be pressed into action at left-back, while Tuchel’s former Chelsea teammate Reece James has faced another injury setback.

Amid England’s struggles, France has found momentum, defeating Brazil 2-1 and Colombia 3-1 at the end of March. Several top players, notably Michael Olise and Ryan Cherki, are thriving at club level, and France began as favorites in both the last World Cup and European Championship tournaments.

Many leading sportsbooks have installed France as the favorite for the upcoming World Cup, though that status is shaped by factors beyond any single team’s control. Spain had captured the 2024 European Championship by defeating every opponent, including France and England in the semifinal and final, respectively. La Roja was widely viewed as the team to beat heading into the World Cup, but that confidence has been unsettled by a major injury.

Barcelona’s 18-year-old winger Lamine Yamal tore the hamstring in his left leg on April 22 and was ruled out for the rest of the season. ESPN’s Doug Greenberg noted that Spain’s odds shifted from +450 to +500 co-favorites with France in light of the injury. It is hoped Yamal will be fit for the World Cup, though questions remain about his sharpness and conditioning.