Astros vs. Dodgers prediction: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets for May 4

Game Info:
Date: Monday, May 4, 2026
Time: 8:10 PM EST
Site: Daikin Park
City: Houston, TX
Network/Streaming: MLB.TV, SCHN, Sportsnet Los Angeles

Game Odds:
Moneyline: Houston Astros (+163), Los Angeles Dodgers (-199)
Spread: Astros +1.5 (+104), Dodgers -1.5 (-126)
Total: 9.0 runs

Probable Starting Pitchers:
Astros: Steven Okert (0–0, 4.20 ERA) 15.0 IP, 0–0, 4.20 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 10 K, 6 BB
Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2–2) 37.2 IP, 2–2, 2.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 32 K

The Dodgers (21–13) and the Astros (14–21) open a three-game series tonight with a clear pitching mismatch headlining the opener: Yoshinobu Yamamoto vs. Steven Okert. The Dodgers sit atop the NL West thanks in large part to a tremendous pitching staff. Yamamoto carries a 2.87 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, and 32 strikeouts into tonight’s start. In 15 of their 34 games, the Dodgers have not yielded a home run. They would certainly welcome a bit more run support, but Yamamoto and the rest of the rotation have shown they can carry the load themselves.

Houston, meanwhile, is fourth in the AL West, dealing with significant pitching injuries and ineffectiveness. The Astros are turning to Okert (0–0, 4.20 ERA) as an opener due to those injuries and rotation shortages, a strategy that puts immediate pressure on a bullpen carrying a 5.75 ERA this season. Unlike the Dodgers, Houston’s offense rarely takes a night off, ranking third in MLB in slugging percentage at .440, led by Yordan Alvarez (.326, 12 HR). Still, good pitching beats good hitting, which is why Houston sits last in the division.

That is why this matchup ultimately hinges on whether Houston’s offense can keep pace long enough to offset the pitching gap. Yamamoto’s elite command and swing‑and‑miss arsenal have been difficult for opponents to solve, while Okert’s short outing will likely force Houston into a bullpen‑heavy night. The Astros’ path to a win likely requires early damage against Yamamoto and continued production from Alvarez and Christian Walker, who has been hot over his last 10 games. But with Los Angeles entering healthier, deeper, and more stable on the mound, the Dodgers hold the advantage as these two teams take the field at Daikin Park.