Croatia (+8000) is One of the Most Undervalued Teams in Modern World Cup History. Here’s Why…

Only 4 teams have made 3 or more World Cup semi-finals since 1998: France (4), Germany (4), Brazil (3), and…. Croatia (3). That’s elite company, to say the least. Meanwhile at 80–1, Croatia is less-favored to win the World Cup than at least 19 other teams. And that is totally insane.

No, this is not the most star-studded squad in the tournament, far from it, but this is a tournament-tested team with a cohesive roster and a strong back line and midfield—and that’s what makes Croatia a World Cup a machine.

Here’s a quick recap:

1998: 3rd place, defeated Germany in the quarterfinals, lost to France 2-1
2018: 2nd place, defeated England in the semifinals, lost to France 4-2
2022: 3rd place, eliminating Brazil in the quarterfinals, lost to Argentina 3-0

Croatia has earned a reputation for grinding through knockout rounds, often winning tight matches, extra time battles, and penalty shootouts. They don’t dominate tournaments, they survive them. They’re never flashy, but always highly functional. They execute strong midfield control and tactical discipline. This is a team that is comfortable in low-margin games, and has proven to be resilient under pressure. This profile makes them particularly dangerous in knockout formats. It’s not a coincidence that they’ve beaten teams like Brazil and England in high-stakes matches.

Much of Croatia’s success in the past two tournaments can be attributed to their coach, Zlatko Dalić, who joined in 2017 and is widely credited for installing the “disciplined tactical identity.” He is one of the longest serving football managers in the tournament, so, Croatia doesn’t just have tournament experience—they have a coach who knows Croatia’s rival teams intimately.

Croatia’s path to the 2026 World Cup didn’t generate much global buzz—but it probably should have. They finished top of their qualifying group, went unbeaten (7 wins, 1 draw) and posted a +22 goal difference. That’s not the profile of a struggling or declining team. Croatia looks like a well-oiled machine ready to go.

While the squad may lack the sheer attacking firepower of teams like France or England, it compensates with cohesion, experience, and tactical intelligence. Croatia’s squad blends veteran leadership with emerging talent:

Luka Modrić – The 2018 Ballon d’Or winner and long-time midfield anchor
Ivan Perišić – “The Clutch King”; A proven leader with a strong World Cup scoring record
Andrej Kramarić – Top scorer in qualifying with six goals
Joško Gvardiol – One of the top young defenders in world football
Mateo Kovačić – A technically gifted midfielder with elite club experience

Croatia is unlikely to dominate headlines or betting markets. They never do. But when it comes to World Cups, few teams are more reliable at turning modest expectations into deep runs. Croatia is not the most talented team—but they might be one of the most dangerous. History tells us that. And for bettors, at 80–1 this is exactly the type of team I want a piece of.

What I’m betting: