The Tampa Bay Rays Are the Hottest Team in Baseball… But are They a Real Contender?

The Tampa Bay Rays are the hottest team in Baseball.

In their last 20 games, the Rays are a league-best 16-4 with a massive +37 run differential, allowing only 2.65 runs a game during that stretch. On the season, they are the 7th-ranked defense and their pitching staff is surely elite—McClanahan, Rasmussen, Matz and Martinez have a combined ERA of 2.76.

Now the Rays currently sit first in the AL East, a full three games ahead of the Yankees. Yet the Rays are +250 to win the division and the Yankees are -227. Just 5 days ago the Rays were +500, a huge move, so the market is waking up. But up to this point, both oddsmakers and and the public have been consistently undervaluing them, making the Rays 27-18 ATS and the most profitable moneyline team in the league, +14.30 Units.

Offensively, the Rays finally have enough firepower to complement the pitching. Yandy Díaz continues to be one of the most disciplined hitters in baseball, providing elite on-base production at the top of the lineup (.295 BA, .376 OBP), and Junior Caminero is quickly becoming one of the most dangerous young power bats in the American League (13 HR). His ability to drive the ball to all fields gives Tampa Bay the kind of middle-of-the-order threat they have occasionally lacked in previous playoff runs. In fact, they are a top-10 offense, avergage 4.85 runs a game (ranked 8th).

So, are the Rays truly elite? If so, these futures numbers are worth looking at right now, because if the Rays keep winning, these will continue to drop fast: