Pistons vs. Cavaliers Prediction, Odds and Best Bet for NBA Playoffs Game 4

Donovan Mitchell and the Cleveland Cavaliers began to claw their way back into their series with the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference semifinals on Saturday, winning 116-109. Cleveland is favored to win Game 4 and even this series, as it improved to 5-0 at home in the playoffs in Game 3. The only issue? The Cavs are 0-5 on the road and don’t have home court in this series. So, Game 4 is pivotal for Cleveland if it wants to escape the second round for the first time in the Mitchell era. In fact, the Cavs have not won more than one game in the second round since adding Mitchell before the 2022-23 season. Meanwhile, the Pistons are looking to get back on track defensively after Cleveland shot over 58 percent from the field in Game 3. The No. 2 defense this postseason, Detroit is allowing 104.7 points per 100 possessions, and it covered the spread in back-to-back games at home to open this series. Now, the Pistons are 3.5-point road dogs in Game 4. Can they take a commanding 3-1 series lead?

Date: Monday, May 11
Time: 8:00 p.m. EST
Venue: Rocket Arena
How to Watch (TV): NBC/Peacock

Spread: Pistons +3.5 (-105); Cavs -3.5 (-115)
Moneyline: Pistons +140; Cavs -166
Total: 213.5 (Over -105/Under -115)

BEST BET: James Harden UNDER 19.5 Points (-125)

Earlier today, in my NBA Best Bets column – Peter’s Points – I explained why Harden is a fade candidate in Game 4: Harden has played in 10 postseason games with the Cavs, and the results have been as volatile as you’d expect. He’s posted four games with 20 or more points (just two since Game 2 against the Toronto Raptors), and he’s also turned the ball over 50 times, averaging 5.0 per game. Harden scored 19 points in Game 3, shooting 8-for-14 from the field and 3-for-7 from deep. While that seems like progress, I’m fading Harden in Game 4 on Monday night. The Cavs star shot just 9-for-28 in the first two games in this series, and he only cleared this line in Game 1 because he got to the free-throw line nine times. In fact, two of the four games where Harden has scored 20 this postseason came with him taking nine or more shots from the charity stripe. The Pistons have the No. 2 defensive rating in the playoffs (and No. 2 in the regular season), and I expect them to keep Harden in check on Monday night.

Game Prediction

Cleveland may have won Game 3, but it took a great shooting performance (58.1 percent from the field) to get it done. The Cavs’ offense has been shaky in this postseason, operating in a clean, simple style. My pick for Game 4 is Cleveland to take a 3-1 series lead, though Detroit will challenge them again.