The Avalanche Have a Goalie Problem and the Wild are +350 to Win Series

The Colorado Avalanche still look like  the NHL’s most dangerous team on paper. They have elite skaters, championship experience, and enough offensive firepower to bury opponents in a hurry. But through this series against the Minnesota Wild, Colorado’s biggest vulnerability has become impossible to ignore: the crease. Sportsbooks continue pricing the Avalanche like a dominant favorite, while the Wild can absolutely win this matchup. If Colorado’s goaltending is shakier than the market believes, then Minnesota suddenly becomes one of the most attractive underdog bets on the board.

Wedgewood’s Playoff Cracks Are Showing

Scott Wedgewood entered the postseason on the back of a terrific regular season statistically. He finished with a 2.02 goals-against average and a .921 save percentage, and he shared the Jennings Trophy with Mackenzie Blackwood after Colorado allowed the fewest goals in the NHL. But playoff hockey exposes weaknesses quickly, and the Wild have started finding them.

Game 1 was chaotic from the opening puck drop. Colorado eventually won 9-6, but Minnesota repeatedly generated dangerous chances off the rush and around the crease. The Wild erased an early 3-0 deficit and scored six times in a game that highlighted how vulnerable the Avalanche could look when structure breaks down.

Then came Game 3, which was far more alarming from Colorado’s perspective. The Wild rolled to a 5-1 victory, forcing Colorado to pull Wedgewood after he allowed three goals on just 12 shots. Mackenzie Blackwood entered in relief after the Avalanche fell behind early and never recovered. That kind of hook matters in a playoff series because it signals uncertainty. Colorado suddenly looks like a team searching for answers in net instead of one confidently riding a hot goalie.

Wedgewood’s Career Profile Still Matters

The regular-season numbers were excellent, but bettors also have to consider the broader body of work. Wedgewood is 33 years old and has spent most of his NHL career as a backup or stopgap option. Before arriving in Colorado, he bounced between organizations and never fully established himself as a long-term No. 1 goalie. His career arc has always been defined more by reliability in short stretches than sustained elite play. That doesn’t mean he’s bad. It means expectations should be realistic. There’s a major difference between thriving behind a dominant regular-season team and being the backbone of a Stanley Cup run. Once playoff pressure ramps up and opponents repeatedly attack the same weaknesses, depth-chart labels start to matter again. The Wild are making him uncomfortable laterally, creating rebound opportunities, and forcing Colorado’s goalies into high-danger situations. That’s exactly the formula underdogs need in a playoff upset.

Blackwood Isn’t a Lock Either

The obvious counterargument is that Colorado can simply turn to Mackenzie Blackwood. But bettors should be careful assuming Blackwood solves the problem. Yes, Blackwood had strong numbers after arriving in Colorado, posting a .913 save percentage with the Avalanche last season and helping stabilize their crease situation. But his career has also been marked by inconsistency and injuries, and he still hasn’t fully shaken the reputation of being a goalie with enormous talent but uneven reliability. That uncertainty becomes amplified in the postseason. Even in Game 3 relief duty, Blackwood allowed another goal shortly after entering the game. Colorado suddenly looks like a team rotating between two goalies neither of whom inspires complete trust. For a Stanley Cup contender, that’s worrying. That’s dangerous.

Minnesota is Undervalued at +350 to Win Series

Before Game 1, the Avalanche were roughly -245 favorites to win the series at some sportsbooks, while Minnesota was available around +200 or higher depending on the market. Even heading into Game 3, Colorado was still being priced as a road favorite despite Minnesota’s ability to create offense throughout the series. Right now, Minnesota is +110 for Game 4, home underdogs, and +350 to win the series. And we don’t even know who’s going to be the Avalanche goalie moving forward…