NBA Playoffs future odds, analysis: Should bettors invest in adjusted price on Spurs?
NBA Playoffs Odds Shifts: Spurs–Timberwolves Series and the Value Move
In the NBA Playoffs, the stark disparity of roster talent and performance projections often leads oddsmakers to price series with an eye toward discouraging heavy action on a massive favorite to simply win the series outright.
For example, the San Antonio Spurs, the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference, were priced as high as -3000 to win their second-round series against the No. 6-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves, who were given odds around +1200 to +1400. The calculus in the NBA futures odds changed quickly when the Timberwolves pulled a 104-102 upset in Game 1, bolstered by the return of star Anthony Edwards and the same hard-hat mentality that helped them upset the Nuggets in the first round. Now, the Spurs are a modest -200 favorite to win the series, with the Timberwolves around +160 heading into Game 2. The Spurs are now offered at a playable price straight up to win the series, a dramatic shift even considering the Game 1 result.
How did we get here? And what’s the betting strategy moving forward? It’s worth noting that the pre-series price was undoubtedly influenced by Edwards being expected to miss at least the first two games with a knee injury. But even after he was reported as available late Monday afternoon, the odds for the Spurs to win the series shifted only moderately to the -2200 to -2000 range. However, it also appears that NBA oddsmakers simply didn’t give some clubs enough respect, as we saw the Philadelphia 76ers (+650) upset the Boston Celtics in the first round after falling behind 3-1, and the Los Angeles Lakers (+425) topple the Houston Rockets in six games. The Timberwolves had been given odds around +250 in their first-round series against the Nuggets. Bet on the NBA playoffs with the FanDuel promo code.
Even so, this price adjustment feels like an overreaction. For analogy’s sake, say you came across a sweater at your favorite department store but passed at a price of $30. Upon a return visit the following week, you find that it’s been reduced to $3 but has a slight tear toward the bottom that is barely noticeable and could be fixed with a couple stitches. Most of us would grab the sweater, and that’s how we feel about the Spurs at this reduced price. We were passing 100% at the opening series price, but the 90%-plus discount, with the Game 1 loss representing the product defect, gives us the necessary value to make the transaction. The Timberwolves are dangerous, but Edwards still isn’t at full strength and their overall lack of depth (five players logged at least 30 minutes in Game 1) will show up as the series continues.
We also saw San Antonio overcome a Game 2 loss on its home floor to Portland by dominating the rest of the way in a 4-1 series victory. We expect Minnesota to perhaps capture another game, but ultimately the Spurs are poised to win.
