2026 World Cup Odds: How Far Will Team USA Go?
What is the likelihood of Team USA losing in the 2026 World Cup, or could they avoid defeat altogether? Here are the stage-of-elimination odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of May 4:
Team USA Futures Odds:
Round of 32: +150
Round of 16: +240
Quarterfinals: +500
Semifinals: +1200
Runner-up: +2800
To Win Outright: +6500
The outlook appears to be … ho-hum?
If the odds hold true, the Americans are expected to advance from the group stage but drop in the first knockout round. How would that result stack up against past performances? In 2022, Team USA reached the Round of 16, which was seen as a major accomplishment. In 2018, the U.S. did not qualify for the World Cup, and in 2014 and 2010 the team also made it to the Round of 16. Their best performance this century came in 2002, when the United States reached the quarterfinals before being eliminated. In 1998, the U.S. failed to advance past the group stage; in 1994 it fell in the Round of 16, and in 1990 it again exited in the group stage.
The second line on the odds board is “Last 16,” meaning the USA would advance from the group and win one knockout game, only to fall in the subsequent round. The third outcome is a group-stage exit, and the fourth is a run to the quarterfinals, implying two knockout wins. The semis, the final, and the championship remain the three outcomes with the longest odds.
Making the semifinals, losing in the final, or winning the championship are the three probabilities with the longest odds.
