2026 NBA Playoffs betting: Model leans heavily on one team in conference semifinals futures best bets
Round 2 Opens Without Boston, Denver or Houston
The Celtics? Clipped. The Nuggets? Nixed. The Rockets? Removed. The 2026 NBA Playoffs are moving on without Boston, Denver and Houston, and on Monday night the Eastern and Western Conference semifinals begin with two Game 1s.
As the second round commences, the reigning champion Oklahoma City Thunder remain the favorites to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy again, at -155 at FanDuel. They were +115 entering the postseason. The young Spurs are still the second choice, at +400.
But the elimination of the Celtics, Nuggets and Rockets have significantly altered the odds down the board. The Knicks (+900), Pistons (+1500) and Cavaliers (+2000) now round out the top five in the NBA Finals futures odds. The Lakers (+4000), 76ers (+4500) and Timberwolves (+10000) complete the field.
The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and entered the second round of the 2026 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 26-9 roll (74%) on top-rated NBA spread betting picks this season, gives the Thunder the best chance to win the title at 49.5%. But with the odds at -155, the model does not like a play on Oklahoma City. However, the model has found value elsewhere in futures betting. The simulations are especially high on one team in particular.
The SportsLine Projection Model loves New York. And why not? The Knicks have looked like a different team in the playoffs, closing out the Hawks, 4-2. New York won the last three games of the series by 16, 29 and 51 — yes, 51 — points, with two of those games being in Atlanta.
Fans in Gotham should be ecstatic that the home team crushed the Hawks with Jalen Brunson needing only to be Robin and not Batman. While he was very good over the final three games (25.0 points per game on 52.8% shooting), Brunson entered the series averaging 29.9 points per game over his career in the postseason, the fifth-most in NBA history (minimum 40 games) behind only Michael Jordan, Luka Doncic, Allen Iverson and LeBron James.
The Knicks and 76ers split their season series 2-2, but Brunson & Co. won the last two games, including a 138-89 blowout in the last meeting, which was in Philadelphia. Though the 76ers also are playing like a different team now that Joel Embiid is in the lineup, the SportsLine Projection Model still gives New York a resounding 91.3% chance to win the series and advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
The elimination of Boston also greatly enhances the Knicks’ chances to win the East, according to the model. Entering the playoffs, New York had just a 19.0% chance to win the conference in the model’s simulations. That has improved to 52.0%.
