Everyone Hates the Ducks. I’m Betting on Them.

+280 to win the series? Yes please!

Let’s go back 2 weeks; Friday April 24th. I had bet the Ducks to win the Oilers series after game 2, and was now celebrating their 7-4 game 3 victory in their first home playoff game in 8 years. Meanwhile that night, the Vegas Golden Knights lost to the upstart Mammoth, going down 2-1 in that series.

Both teams ended up winning in 6.

Now Vegas is priced as a true contender to win the cup at +600, and Anaheim is +4000.

What am I missing?

The Ducks are the youngest team in the league; they’re fast, energetic and confident, with a solid core group of veterans like Kreider and Trouba. And they’re getting great goaltending. The Ducks had 4 more regulation wins than the Knights this season (they finished with 3 less points thanks to the Knights 17 OT/SO losses). The Ducks are a surprisingly gritty and resilient team despite their young age, with the most comeback wins in the NHL this year, 26.

And what about the Knights? They were entirely underwhelming this season. They’re old. They’re kinda slow. Carter Hart let in 18 goals in the first series, he’s been nothing special. What makes the Golden Knights +600 and the Ducks +4000?

Same story as always: The market largely boils down to public perception, brand recognition and… outdated stats. The Ducks were CLEARLY a better team than the Oilers, but they were underdogs every game in that series, because statistical models had the Oilers being a 5-times better team.  The Ducks still are not getting any credit for somewhat demolishing a team that opened the season as the Stanley Cup favorite, and now the same models are saying the Golden Knights are a 10-TIMES BETTER TEAM (~19% to win cup vs 2%)…

No, I’m not saying the Ducks are going to win the cup. What I am saying is I think they’re probably a better team than the Golden Knights right now. And the series price is  +280.

So I just bet them to win game 2 at +135. I bet them to win the series at +280. And as long as they’re underdogs, I’ll keep betting them in this series.